Across Australian agriculture, we’re seeing the impact of global market pressures filter directly into day-to-day operations.
Products are taking longer to arrive. Freight costs are less predictable. Raw material prices, particularly copper, are sitting at historically high and volatile levels. At the same time, currency movements are influencing landed costs in ways that can shift quickly.
For growers and resellers, this isn’t abstract global economics – it affects availability, pricing and the confidence to plan programs months ahead. While these factors sit largely outside our control, how we respond to them locally – through forecasting, communication and forward planning – has never been more important.
Global Shipping | The “New Normal” Is Unpredictability
The global shipping industry is currently operating in one of its most challenging periods in decades. Freight rates and transit times are no longer stable benchmarks; they are moving targets. Several factors are driving this:
1. Political Tensions and Route Disruptions
Instability in the Red Sea has resulted in more than half of vessels avoiding the Suez Canal and instead travelling around the Cape of Good Hope. This diversion adds 10–14 days to Asia–Europe voyages and reduces global shipping capacity. While conditions in the Panama Canal are gradually improving, recent low water levels have also limited vessel movements and added pressure to alternative routes. This means fewer ships available, longer transit times and increased freight costs.
2. Trade and Tariff Pressures
Recent U.S. tariff increases, which are now sitting at levels not seen since the early 1900s, have caused many businesses to rush shipments ahead of implementation dates. When large volumes of product are moved at once, freight rates spike. At the same time, manufacturing is shifting. Companies are diversifying away from China into countries such as Vietnam and Mexico. While strategically sound, these transitions disrupt established logistics channels and add another layer of unpredictability.
3. Port Congestion and Labour Shortages
Major global ports continue to experience labour constraints. Vessels can wait days, sometimes weeks, for available berths. Compounding this are container imbalances. Some regions are short on containers, while others have large numbers sitting idle. This affects availability, scheduling and cost.
4. Environmental Regulation and Decarbonisation
Shipping is also undergoing structural change as new environmental regulations approach. International fuel standards and carbon pricing mechanisms expected by 2028 are already influencing fleet investment decisions. Newer, environmentally compliant vessels can cost 20–50% more than traditional ships. Some suppliers opt for lower-cost freight options to manage expenses but that often means extended transit times. Where European shipments may once have taken 30–45 days, 60 days is increasingly common.
What Is the Impact?
Lead times have extended significantly. Freight costs remain elevated and volatile. Reliability is reduced. Product costs have increased.
For more on this topic, read this in depth article from Fresh Fruit portal.
Raw Material Volatility | Copper at Record Levels
Alongside freight disruption, raw copper prices are currently sitting at historic highs, with volatility at levels rarely seen before.
Copper is a critical input in many crop protection products. When raw copper prices rise, and remain elevated, the impact flows directly through to finished product pricing. The higher the copper content, the greater the exposure.
While the stronger Australian dollar has helped cushion some of this impact in recent months, that buffer may not be permanent.
Benefits of A Strong Australian Dollar
As of mid-February 2026, the Australian dollar has strengthened to around USD 0.71, up from approximately USD 0.65 in late 2025. This has helped cushion the impact of price increases – a stronger AUD reduces the landed cost of imported goods, including crop protection inputs. This rise has been supported by:
- A firm stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia on inflation
- Resilient domestic economic data
- Strong commodity prices, including gold and iron ore
- Periods of U.S. dollar softness
In short: The AUD is currently strong thanks to firm economic data, high rates and solid commodity prices, but it may face pressure later in 2026 if global conditions shift.
Outlook for 2026–2027
Currency markets move quickly. Forecasts suggest the dollar could test USD 0.72–0.73 in the near term, but there is equal expectation that it may ease later in 2026 depending on U.S. economic performance, RBA policy decisions and China’s economic outlook.
Uncertainty is a reality; much of which is outside our control. But what we can control is how we plan for it.
Forecast. Then Forecast Again.
Edgar Fiedler famously quoted: “If you have to forecast, forecast often.”
In practical terms, forecasting is one of the strongest risk-management tools available to growers, agronomists and resellers. A forecast allows:
- The right product to be secured early.
- Supply to be positioned in the correct region.
- Production runs to be scheduled with greater certainty.
- Exposure to last-minute freight premiums to be reduced.
Agriculture is fluid and forecasts are not fixed. Seasonal conditions shift. Pest and disease pressure changes. Planting programs adjust.
But having a working forecast – even if it moves – provides a target to work towards. Looking three and six months ahead gives everyone in the supply chain a far better chance of maintaining continuity of supply during peak demand periods.
Communication Is Critical
In uncertain global conditions, regular communication reduces surprises – forecasting works best when communication flows both ways. Resellers and growers sharing forward programs allow suppliers to secure production slots and manage freight windows.
Suppliers sharing realistic lead times and market signals allow customers to make informed commercial decisions.
A Practical Approach for the Season Ahead
We cannot influence geopolitical tensions, global tariffs or international shipping routes. But we can:
- Plan earlier.
- Review programs sooner.
- Secure product ahead of peak demand.
- Adjust forecasts as conditions evolve.
In 2026, forward ordering is not about overcommitting, it’s about protecting supply and reducing exposure to volatility.
If you would like to review your requirements for the coming months, speak with your local 7 Worlds Ag representative or contact us. The earlier we plan, the stronger the outcome for everyone in the supply chain.